The World Bank predicts remittances to the Philippines will fall about 13% this year, Dilip Ratha, senior financial economist in Washington, said in an e-mailed reply to questions.
Global job losses from the coronavirus pandemic are upending the $690 billion annual flow in remittances, an essential support for many developing nations. Money sent home by Filipinos working abroad reached a record $30.1 billion last year, equal to about 10% of the country’s gross domestic product.
As the global economy plunges into recession, Philippine tourism, trade, foreign investment and remittances are expected to contract, central bank Governor Benjamin Diokno said in a live-streamed conference Friday.
The bank’s baseline assumption is that remittances will grow 3% this year, Assistant Governor Iluminada Sicat said. However, she added that with some overseas Filipino workers being sent home, the bank now is “seeing some contraction in remittances by about 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point,” with further declines possible as the pandemic continues.